Iran oil production (in blue): going sharply down
OPEC conservatism is probably not the only explanation for the maintenance of a ceiling of 30 million barrels/day decided in Vienna, Wednesday, Dec. 4. The organization believes that oil production, which depends on the margin on the mood of Libyan and Iraqi militiamen, will remain stable in the coming months. In this respect, statements of the new Iranian oil minister that the Iranian production could go back to 4 million b/d (instead of 2,7 mb/d) once international sanctions are lifted are taken for what they are: political statements, not technical. Experts doubt that Iran would be able to open the tap to such levels after sanctions being lifted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) does not predict it before 2035.
IEA forcasts for OPEC members
The sanctions have indeed considerably weakened the Iranian petroleum system as the purges during the controversial presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In the opinion of market watchers, it will take time to upgrade it.